According to BTN, Here are the Advanced Stats Comparison of Three Familiar Names in the Oilogosphere:
NAME | POS | TEAM | NUM | GP | TOI/60 | RATING | QUALCOMP | QUALTEAM | CORSI | GOALS/60 | ASST1/60 | ASST2/60 | PTS/60 | GFON | GAON | GFON/60 | GAON/60 | +/- |
DUSTIN PENNER | LW | EDM | 27 | 78 | 11.71 | 0.92 | -0.00 | 0.11 | 7.0 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.20 | 1.71 | 45 | 32 | 2.96 | 2.10 | 13 |
DANY HEATLEY | RW | OTT | 15 | 82 | 14.97 | 0.21 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 2.2 | 1.17 | 0.64 | 0.39 | 2.20 | 59 | 64 | 2.88 | 3.13 | -5 |
NIKOLAI ZHERDEV | RW | NYR | 13 | 81 | 13.23 | 1.32 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 14.6 | 0.95 | 1.06 | 0.50 | 2.52 | 56 | 44 | 3.14 | 2.46 | 12 |
The highlighted column describes QUALCOMP, or Quality of Competition. As you can also see, Penner and Zherdev rape Heatley in terms of Advanced (+/-).
Dany Heatley salary = $7.5 M a season
Dustin Penner + Nikolai Zherdev salary = about $8.5 M or 9 M a season
Dany Heatley
6’3″ 216 lbs, scored 39-33-72
Main Comparison(s): Brett Hull
Main Criticism(s): Lack of heart, team spirit, etc.
Dustin Penner
6’4″ 240 lbs, scored 17-20-37
Main Comparison(s): Scott Hartnell, Ryan Malone
Main Criticism(s): Lack of heart, fitness, etc.
Nikolai Zherdev
6’2″ 197 lbs, scored 23-35-58
Main Comparison(s): Ales Hemsky
Main Criticism(s): Lack of heart, team spirit, etc.
As you know, the Rangers passed on paying him 3.9 M for one year as awarded by an arbitrator. Zherdev was seeking 4.75 M a year so I’m assuming his eventual settling price will be somewhere in that range, near the middle. Maybe 4.3 M or 4.5 M.
Conclusion:
The Oilers are better off signing Zherdev and making salary cap room for both Zherdev and Penner than for Heatley alone.
Why, you ask?
- Zherdev is a PP and SO specialist who can play on both your 1st and 2nd line
- Penner plays PP, PK, and anywhere from your 1st to 3rd lines
- Heatley is a guy who can play PP and only play on your 1st line
- If one of Zherdev or Penner gets hurt, you’re not completely screwed
- Penner has size that Quinn can utilize
This would give the Oilers a couple pretty decent scoring lines, especially with Penner and Gagner paired up and playing lesser oppositions they would probably kill the soft minutes. Here’s a preview:
Zherdev – Horcoff – Hemsky
Penner – Gagner – WHOEVER
Moreau – Pouliot – Pisani
Reddox – Brule – Stortini
MacIntyre
The only problem for Tambellini … is making cap room right now. But it will cost the Oilers only 1 M to 1.5 M more than they would be paying for Heatley.
But if you ask me, it’s a no-brainer.