According to BTN, Here are the Advanced Stats Comparison of Three Familiar Names in the Oilogosphere:
DUSTIN PENNER |
LW |
EDM |
27 |
78 |
11.71 |
0.92 |
-0.00 |
0.11 |
7.0 |
0.79 |
0.72 |
0.20 |
1.71 |
45 |
32 |
2.96 |
2.10 |
13 |
DANY HEATLEY |
RW |
OTT |
15 |
82 |
14.97 |
0.21 |
0.04 |
0.00 |
2.2 |
1.17 |
0.64 |
0.39 |
2.20 |
59 |
64 |
2.88 |
3.13 |
-5 |
NIKOLAI ZHERDEV |
RW |
NYR |
13 |
81 |
13.23 |
1.32 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
14.6 |
0.95 |
1.06 |
0.50 |
2.52 |
56 |
44 |
3.14 |
2.46 |
12 |
The highlighted column describes QUALCOMP, or Quality of Competition. As you can also see, Penner and Zherdev rape Heatley in terms of Advanced (+/-).
Dany Heatley salary = $7.5 M a season
Dustin Penner + Nikolai Zherdev salary = about $8.5 M or 9 M a season
Dany Heatley
6’3″ 216 lbs, scored 39-33-72
Main Comparison(s): Brett Hull
Main Criticism(s): Lack of heart, team spirit, etc.
Dustin Penner
6’4″ 240 lbs, scored 17-20-37
Main Comparison(s): Scott Hartnell, Ryan Malone
Main Criticism(s): Lack of heart, fitness, etc.
Nikolai Zherdev
6’2″ 197 lbs, scored 23-35-58
Main Comparison(s): Ales Hemsky
Main Criticism(s): Lack of heart, team spirit, etc.
As you know, the Rangers passed on paying him 3.9 M for one year as awarded by an arbitrator. Zherdev was seeking 4.75 M a year so I’m assuming his eventual settling price will be somewhere in that range, near the middle. Maybe 4.3 M or 4.5 M.
Conclusion:
The Oilers are better off signing Zherdev and making salary cap room for both Zherdev and Penner than for Heatley alone.
Why, you ask?
- Zherdev is a PP and SO specialist who can play on both your 1st and 2nd line
- Penner plays PP, PK, and anywhere from your 1st to 3rd lines
- Heatley is a guy who can play PP and only play on your 1st line
- If one of Zherdev or Penner gets hurt, you’re not completely screwed
- Penner has size that Quinn can utilize
This would give the Oilers a couple pretty decent scoring lines, especially with Penner and Gagner paired up and playing lesser oppositions they would probably kill the soft minutes. Here’s a preview:
Zherdev – Horcoff – Hemsky
Penner – Gagner – WHOEVER
Moreau – Pouliot – Pisani
Reddox – Brule – Stortini
MacIntyre
The only problem for Tambellini … is making cap room right now. But it will cost the Oilers only 1 M to 1.5 M more than they would be paying for Heatley.
But if you ask me, it’s a no-brainer.